The President’s Inbox

This episode unpacks the deepening U.S.-Canada trade war, the collapse of a potential deal to end it, and whether decades of economic integration are rupturing.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Rohinton Medhora, Professor of Practice at McGill University and Distinguished Fellow at the Center for International Governance and Innovation (CIGI)

 

We Discuss:

Whether the latest U.S. tariffs mark a genuine “rupture” in the U.S.-Canada relationship or just another rough patch in a partnership that goes back more than a century.

How a nine-year arc—from the NAFTA renegotiation to USMCA—led to today’s standoff, and why Ottawa sees the U.S. national security rationale for steel and aluminum tariffs as a betrayal.

How a mid-August deal collapsed, and what Canadian negotiators mean by the “ghost in the room.”

Why Prime Minister Mark Carney chose to retaliate “elbows up” rather than follow Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s more conciliatory approach.

How Canada’s “messy and noisy” federation—from Doug Ford’s Ontario to Alberta’s secessionist stirrings and Quebec’s election—shapes Ottawa’s room to maneuver.

Whether energy exports are the “elephant in the room,” and how far Canada could go in using them as leverage.

How Ottawa is courting U.S. governors, senators, and public opinion in states that depend on cross-border trade.

What the unresolved fight over digital technology means for where the U.S.-Canada relationship heads next.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Ronald Reagan, “Radio Address to the Nation on Free and Fair Trade,” Ronald Reagan Presidential Library

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/elbows-up-how-canada-is-fighting-trumps-tariffs

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks how the September 11 attacks reshaped the U.S. approach to global threats and internal security.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Walter Russell Mead, Ravenel B. Curry III Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship, Hudson Institute

 

We Discuss:

Why the September 11 attacks were such a pivotal moment in the history of U.S. foreign policy, and how they are understood by those who lived through them in comparison to younger Americans. 

How the attacks shattered a post-Cold War sense in the United States that “history had ended,” with the world moving inevitably toward greater freedom and prosperity.

Whether the "Global War on Terrorism" reflected the idiosyncrasies of the Bush administration, or something more fundamental about how the United States responds to attacks.

How the Bush response to 9/11 compares to Franklin D. Roosevelt's response to Pearl Harbor.

Why the United States found it so hard to leave Afghanistan and Iraq, and how mission creep turned those military campaigns into open-ended nation-building projects.

How "liberal fundamentalism" shaped an overconfident belief that American values could be easily applied to other, complicated societies.

Why Americans tend to treat foreign policy as a solvable problem rather than a set of chronic issues to be managed.

The fate of the Jeffersonian impulse in American foreign policy, and what lessons Mead hopes 2028 presidential candidates will take from the legacy of September 11.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Walter Russell Mead, Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World, Knopf

 

Walter Russell Mead, Power, Terror, Peace, and War: America’s Grand Strategy in a World at Risk, Knopf

 

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago, Harper & Row

 

Walter Russell Mead, “The Return of Geopolitics: The Revenge of the Revisionist Powers,” Foreign Affairs

 

George F. Kennan (“X”), “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” Foreign Affairs

 

“The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (September 2002),” The White House

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/what-the-us-got-wrong-in-the-war-on-terror

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the potential purposes and implications of CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent surprise trip to Moscow.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Stephen Sestanovich, George F. Kennan Senior Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies, CFR

 

We Discuss:

What is actually known about CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unannounced trip to Moscow, and how the visit became public.

Whether Ratcliffe's conspicuous arrival by military aircraft across the Latvian border suggests the publicity was deliberate rather than a failed attempt at secrecy.

Competing explanations for the visit's purpose, from warning Russia against escalation to sending a message on Iran.

How unusual it is for a CIA director to make such a trip, and how it compares to Bill Burns's 2021 visit to Moscow.

How the intended audiences for the visit may include not just the Kremlin but also Russian and European elites, as well as the U.S. Congress as it weighs a new Russia sanctions bill.

Whether the trip is part of an effort to relieve domestic political pressure on Donald Trump, who faces demands to get tough on Russia. 

How the Trump administration has struggled to reconcile firmness toward Russia with openness to diplomacy, including ambiguity surrounding the Alaska summit and a proposed tripartite summit.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Vladimir Putin, with Nataliya Gevorkyan, Natalya Timakova, and Andrei Kolesnikov, First Person: An Astonishingly Frank Self-Portrait by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, PublicAffairs

 

Barak Ravid, “CIA Director Ratcliffe Floated Trump-Putin-Zelensky Summit During Moscow Visit, Sources Say,” Axios

 

“Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 (S.1241),” U.S. Congress

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-cia-directors-not-so-secret-trip-to-moscow

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the current state of the U.S.-Iran conflict, broader dynamics in the Middle East, and the shifting U.S. role in the region.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Steven A. Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR

 

We Discuss:

Who, if anyone, is winning the six-month war with Iran, and how freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's ability to menace its neighbors, and its incentives to pursue a nuclear weapon have all evolved.

Why the extent of the damage to Iran's nuclear program remains unknown, and why Tehran now has every incentive to dash toward weaponization.

How the war's decapitation strikes produced leadership change rather than genuine regime change, leading to a situation in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the hardest of Iran’s hardliners now call the shots in Tehran.

Whether the supposed split between Iranian "moderates" and "hardliners" is real or a Western construct that makes the regime more intelligible.

What President Donald Trump's "economic D-Day" is meant to achieve, and why it remains uncertain that economic isolation will lead to regime collapse.

Whether U.S. bluster carries real costs, and how doubts about U.S. credibility have pushed Gulf partners to look elsewhere for their security.

What the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey actually signals, and whether it represents an alternative to an American-sponsored regional order rather than a true Article 5-style pact.

Why the United Arab Emirates was left out of the Mecca agreement, and what the rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh reveals about fractures within the Gulf.

Where the region is headed as the U.S.-led Middle East order comes to an end, and whether a diminished U.S. role and greater regional agency is a good thing.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Steven A. Cook, The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East, Oxford University Press

 

Steven A. Cook, “The U.S.-Led Middle East Order Is Over. The Mecca Agreement Proves It.,” Council on Foreign Relations

 

Steven A. Cook, “After Iran, It’s Time for the United States to Leave the Middle East,” Foreign Policy

 

Marc Lynch, “The End of the American Middle East: Iran and the Last Gasp of a Failed Order,” Foreign Affairs

 

Robert Kagan, “Iran Unleashed,” The Atlantic

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/six-months-of-war-with-iran

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks reporting that U.S. munitions stockpiles are dangerously low and lays out the consequences of the shortage both for Washington’s ongoing war with Iran, and for its deterrence of adversaries.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Michael C. Horowitz, Senior Fellow for Technology and Innovation and Director of the Defense and National Security Program, CFR

 

We Discuss:

Whether news reports of a serious depletion of U.S. high-tech weapons stocks are accurate, and how far inventories have been drawn down.

The distinction between defensive interceptors, such as Patriot and THAAD, and offensive standoff weapons, such as Tomahawks and ATACMS, and how long each takes to produce.

How the roots of the munitions crisis trace back to decisions in the 1990s—including the "Last Supper" defense industry consolidation—that prioritized quality over quantity.

Why President Donald Trump's argument that the shortage stems from Biden-era weapons transfers to Ukraine misses deeper structural causes.

How chokepoints—from Chinese rare-earth dominance to consolidated tier-two and tier-three suppliers—make ramping up production slow and costly.

Why the Pentagon has been slow to shift its acquisition strategy despite nearly a decade of warnings about renewed great power competition, and how "not invented here" attitudes compound the problem.

Whether budget austerity would spur innovation or choke it, and how "precise mass" could revitalize U.S. capabilities within a two-year window.

How much the current drawdown threatens deterrence at a moment when the United States is left without an aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Rush Doshi, Erin D. Dumbacher, William Henagan, Michael C. Horowitz, and Samuel Lazarus, “Out of Ammo: A Two-Year Sprint to Rebuild the American Arsenal and Deter China,” Council on Foreign Relations

 

“One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1),” U.S. Congress

 

Michael C. Horowitz, “Battles of Precise Mass: Technology Is Remaking War—and America Must Adapt,” Foreign Affairs

 

Erin D. Dumbacher, Michael C. Horowitz, and Lauren Kahn, “Will Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful’ Defense Spending Last?” Council on Foreign Relations

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/washingtons-missile-shortage

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.