The President’s Inbox

This episode unpacks reporting that U.S. munitions stockpiles are dangerously low and lays out the consequences of the shortage both for Washington’s ongoing war with Iran, and for its deterrence of adversaries.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Michael C. Horowitz, Senior Fellow for Technology and Innovation and Director of the Defense and National Security Program, CFR

 

We Discuss:

Whether news reports of a serious depletion of U.S. high-tech weapons stocks are accurate, and how far inventories have been drawn down.

The distinction between defensive interceptors, such as Patriot and THAAD, and offensive standoff weapons, such as Tomahawks and ATACMS, and how long each takes to produce.

How the roots of the munitions crisis trace back to decisions in the 1990s—including the "Last Supper" defense industry consolidation—that prioritized quality over quantity.

Why President Donald Trump's argument that the shortage stems from Biden-era weapons transfers to Ukraine misses deeper structural causes.

How chokepoints—from Chinese rare-earth dominance to consolidated tier-two and tier-three suppliers—make ramping up production slow and costly.

Why the Pentagon has been slow to shift its acquisition strategy despite nearly a decade of warnings about renewed great power competition, and how "not invented here" attitudes compound the problem.

Whether budget austerity would spur innovation or choke it, and how "precise mass" could revitalize U.S. capabilities within a two-year window.

How much the current drawdown threatens deterrence at a moment when the United States is left without an aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Rush Doshi, Erin D. Dumbacher, William Henagan, Michael C. Horowitz, and Samuel Lazarus, “Out of Ammo: A Two-Year Sprint to Rebuild the American Arsenal and Deter China,” Council on Foreign Relations

 

“One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1),” U.S. Congress

 

Michael C. Horowitz, “Battles of Precise Mass: Technology Is Remaking War—and America Must Adapt,” Foreign Affairs

 

Erin D. Dumbacher, Michael C. Horowitz, and Lauren Kahn, “Will Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful’ Defense Spending Last?” Council on Foreign Relations

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/washingtons-missile-shortage

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks how the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign is accelerating Cuba's economic collapse and what a firsthand trip to the country reveals about life amidst the crisis.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Will Freeman, Fellow for Latin America Studies, CFR

 

We Discuss:

What the Trump administration is ultimately seeking to accomplish with its Cuba policy.

How secondary sanctions differ from the existing trade embargo.

What life on the ground in Cuba looks like today, with a mass economic crisis including widespread malnutrition and near-total electricity blackouts.

Whether ordinary Cubans blame the United States or their own government for the crisis.

Whether Cuba's government is attempting to pivot toward a China-style state capitalist system.

What Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A. (GAESA) is, why it controls so much of Cuba's economy, and who actually benefits from it.

Whether the Trump administration's pressure is targeting GAESA directly.

Why a Venezuela-style external coup or regime collapse is harder to engineer in Cuba.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

"Cuba's 176 Market-Liberalization Measures," NBC News, June 20, 2026

 

"July 11, 2021 Protests in Cuba," WOLA, July 2022

 

"Miami Herald Investigation: GAESA's Secret Dollar Reserves," Miami Herald, August 6, 2025

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/maximum-pressure-on-cuba

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

U.S.-India relations have struggled despite U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s close personal relationship. This episode unpacks why tariffs, security concerns, and a détente with China has reframed the importance of the relationship, and what it could take to put it back on track. 

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

 

Sadanand Dhume, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, CFR

 

We Discuss:

Why U.S.-India relations have been uncertain since mid-2025 after having slowly strengthened over many years.

How the second Trump administration’s early actions and India’s multipolar diplomacy forced substantive confrontations thatTrump and  Modi’s personal relationship could not overcome.

Why U.S.-India trade negotiations stalled and the Trump administration imposed tariffs, despite India repeatedly offering concessions.

How the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict and Trump’s claim of forcing a ceasefire put Modi in a domestic political bind.

How Pakistan’s prominent role in brokering the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has amplified Indian anxieties about a U.S.-Pakistan thaw.

Why Trump’s talk of a Group of Two with China undermines its strategic desire to strengthen India as a counterweight to Chinese power.

What the state of the Quad—an informal security dialogue among the United States, Australia, India, and Japan—and the United States’ de-emphasis of the Indo-Pacific framework reveal about U.S. strategy in Asia.

How Modi is normalizing ties with China and whether there is a limit to normalization given the Himalayan border dispute and China’s efforts to constrain India’s growth.

How India’s dependence on Russian arms has fallen over time, and why India is increasingly skeptical that Russia can act independently of China.

Why Modi has resisted domestic political pressure to challenge Trump, and what that restraint reveals about India’s calculation of its long-term national interest.

Where the greatest opportunity lies to rebuild the U.S.-India relationship, and why tech cooperation and Silicon Valley represent the most natural and promising place to start.

 

Mentioned in the Episode:

 

“How People in 24 Countries View India,” Pew Research Center

 

Mathew George, Katarina Djokic, Zain Hussain, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Siemon T. Wezeman, “Trends In International Arms Transfers, 2024,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks U.S. and Chinese AI strategies, regulation approaches, and the future implications for society and security.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Alvin Wang Graylin, Senior Fellow for Technology, Asia Society; Digital Fellow, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence; Professor of AI/Tech Policy, University of Washington

 

We Discuss:

Whether the framing of an AI "race" with China is accurate or helpful, and why it may be producing costly policy distortions.

The concept of AGI (artificial general intelligence) and the thesis that underpins U.S. policy.

China's focus on broad industrial adoption over frontier model development.

How U.S. export controls and visa restrictions spurred the innovations behind DeepSeek.

Why China turned down the offer to purchase NVIDIA H200 chips.

Why Beijing regulates AI more extensively than either the United States or Europe.

The Trump-Xi discussions on AI safety guardrails and the shared interest in preventing non-state bad actors from weaponizing AI.

The economic bubble risk posed by rapidly rising data center costs.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

China's "AI Plus" Initiative, State Council of China, August 2025

 

China's New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan, State Council of China, 2017

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-myth-of-the-ai-race

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the history of 250 years of U.S. foreign policy and examines patterns of the United States’ engagement with the world.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Robert Kagan, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution; Author, Dangerous Nation: America’s Place in the World From Its Earliest Days to the Dawn of the Twentieth Century and The Ghost at the Feast: America and Collapse of World Order, 1900-1941

 

We Discuss:

Why Robert Kagan argues that Americans misunderstand their own history and have long been a “dangerous nation” rather than an insular one.

How American foreign policy debates have always been entangled with domestic politics, and what the polarized fights of the founding era reveal about the true norm of American political life.

Which forces have consistently pulled the United States outward, producing an oscillation between intervention and retrenchment.

Why the era of American imperialism following the Spanish-American War, including the humanitarian motives behind U.S. intervention in Cuba, is among the most misunderstood chapters of U.S. history

Why Americans tend to enter wars with enthusiasm only to sour on them afterward.

Whether the United States is forgetting the lessons of the postwar order.

What the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence should teach Americans about the fragility of liberal democracy.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Robert Kagan, Dangerous Nation: America’s Place in the World From Its Earliest Days to the Dawn of the Twentieth Century, Knopf

 

Robert Kagan, The Ghost at the Feast: America and the Collapse of World Order, 1900–1941, Knopf

 

Robert Kagan, The Jungle Grows Back: America and Our Imperiled World, Knopf

 

Walter Lippmann, U.S. Foreign Policy: Shield of the Republic, Little, Brown

 

Norman Angell, The Great Illusion, G.P. Putnam’s Sons

 

Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man, Free Press

 

James A. Field Jr., “American Imperialism: The Worst Chapter in Almost Any Book,” American Historical Review

 

“Declaration of Independence,” National Archives

 

George Washington, “Farewell Address,” 1796

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/lessons-from-250-years-of-us-foreign-policy

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.