The President’s Inbox

This episode unpacks the potential purposes and implications of CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent surprise trip to Moscow.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Stephen Sestanovich, George F. Kennan Senior Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies, CFR

 

We Discuss:

What is actually known about CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unannounced trip to Moscow, and how the visit became public.

Whether Ratcliffe's conspicuous arrival by military aircraft across the Latvian border suggests the publicity was deliberate rather than a failed attempt at secrecy.

Competing explanations for the visit's purpose, from warning Russia against escalation to sending a message on Iran.

How unusual it is for a CIA director to make such a trip, and how it compares to Bill Burns's 2021 visit to Moscow.

How the intended audiences for the visit may include not just the Kremlin but also Russian and European elites, as well as the U.S. Congress as it weighs a new Russia sanctions bill.

Whether the trip is part of an effort to relieve domestic political pressure on Donald Trump, who faces demands to get tough on Russia. 

How the Trump administration has struggled to reconcile firmness toward Russia with openness to diplomacy, including ambiguity surrounding the Alaska summit and a proposed tripartite summit.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Vladimir Putin, with Nataliya Gevorkyan, Natalya Timakova, and Andrei Kolesnikov, First Person: An Astonishingly Frank Self-Portrait by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, PublicAffairs

 

Barak Ravid, “CIA Director Ratcliffe Floated Trump-Putin-Zelensky Summit During Moscow Visit, Sources Say,” Axios

 

“Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 (S.1241),” U.S. Congress

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-cia-directors-not-so-secret-trip-to-moscow

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the current state of the U.S.-Iran conflict, broader dynamics in the Middle East, and the shifting U.S. role in the region.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Steven A. Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR

 

We Discuss:

Who, if anyone, is winning the six-month war with Iran, and how freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's ability to menace its neighbors, and its incentives to pursue a nuclear weapon have all evolved.

Why the extent of the damage to Iran's nuclear program remains unknown, and why Tehran now has every incentive to dash toward weaponization.

How the war's decapitation strikes produced leadership change rather than genuine regime change, leading to a situation in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the hardest of Iran’s hardliners now call the shots in Tehran.

Whether the supposed split between Iranian "moderates" and "hardliners" is real or a Western construct that makes the regime more intelligible.

What President Donald Trump's "economic D-Day" is meant to achieve, and why it remains uncertain that economic isolation will lead to regime collapse.

Whether U.S. bluster carries real costs, and how doubts about U.S. credibility have pushed Gulf partners to look elsewhere for their security.

What the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey actually signals, and whether it represents an alternative to an American-sponsored regional order rather than a true Article 5-style pact.

Why the United Arab Emirates was left out of the Mecca agreement, and what the rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh reveals about fractures within the Gulf.

Where the region is headed as the U.S.-led Middle East order comes to an end, and whether a diminished U.S. role and greater regional agency is a good thing.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Steven A. Cook, The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East, Oxford University Press

 

Steven A. Cook, “The U.S.-Led Middle East Order Is Over. The Mecca Agreement Proves It.,” Council on Foreign Relations

 

Steven A. Cook, “After Iran, It’s Time for the United States to Leave the Middle East,” Foreign Policy

 

Marc Lynch, “The End of the American Middle East: Iran and the Last Gasp of a Failed Order,” Foreign Affairs

 

Robert Kagan, “Iran Unleashed,” The Atlantic

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/six-months-of-war-with-iran

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks reporting that U.S. munitions stockpiles are dangerously low and lays out the consequences of the shortage both for Washington’s ongoing war with Iran, and for its deterrence of adversaries.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Michael C. Horowitz, Senior Fellow for Technology and Innovation and Director of the Defense and National Security Program, CFR

 

We Discuss:

Whether news reports of a serious depletion of U.S. high-tech weapons stocks are accurate, and how far inventories have been drawn down.

The distinction between defensive interceptors, such as Patriot and THAAD, and offensive standoff weapons, such as Tomahawks and ATACMS, and how long each takes to produce.

How the roots of the munitions crisis trace back to decisions in the 1990s—including the "Last Supper" defense industry consolidation—that prioritized quality over quantity.

Why President Donald Trump's argument that the shortage stems from Biden-era weapons transfers to Ukraine misses deeper structural causes.

How chokepoints—from Chinese rare-earth dominance to consolidated tier-two and tier-three suppliers—make ramping up production slow and costly.

Why the Pentagon has been slow to shift its acquisition strategy despite nearly a decade of warnings about renewed great power competition, and how "not invented here" attitudes compound the problem.

Whether budget austerity would spur innovation or choke it, and how "precise mass" could revitalize U.S. capabilities within a two-year window.

How much the current drawdown threatens deterrence at a moment when the United States is left without an aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

Rush Doshi, Erin D. Dumbacher, William Henagan, Michael C. Horowitz, and Samuel Lazarus, “Out of Ammo: A Two-Year Sprint to Rebuild the American Arsenal and Deter China,” Council on Foreign Relations

 

“One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1),” U.S. Congress

 

Michael C. Horowitz, “Battles of Precise Mass: Technology Is Remaking War—and America Must Adapt,” Foreign Affairs

 

Erin D. Dumbacher, Michael C. Horowitz, and Lauren Kahn, “Will Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful’ Defense Spending Last?” Council on Foreign Relations

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/washingtons-missile-shortage

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks how the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign is accelerating Cuba's economic collapse and what a firsthand trip to the country reveals about life amidst the crisis.

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

Will Freeman, Fellow for Latin America Studies, CFR

 

We Discuss:

What the Trump administration is ultimately seeking to accomplish with its Cuba policy.

How secondary sanctions differ from the existing trade embargo.

What life on the ground in Cuba looks like today, with a mass economic crisis including widespread malnutrition and near-total electricity blackouts.

Whether ordinary Cubans blame the United States or their own government for the crisis.

Whether Cuba's government is attempting to pivot toward a China-style state capitalist system.

What Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A. (GAESA) is, why it controls so much of Cuba's economy, and who actually benefits from it.

Whether the Trump administration's pressure is targeting GAESA directly.

Why a Venezuela-style external coup or regime collapse is harder to engineer in Cuba.

 

Mentioned on the Episode:

 

"Cuba's 176 Market-Liberalization Measures," NBC News, June 20, 2026

 

"July 11, 2021 Protests in Cuba," WOLA, July 2022

 

"Miami Herald Investigation: GAESA's Secret Dollar Reserves," Miami Herald, August 6, 2025

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/maximum-pressure-on-cuba

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

U.S.-India relations have struggled despite U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s close personal relationship. This episode unpacks why tariffs, security concerns, and a détente with China has reframed the importance of the relationship, and what it could take to put it back on track. 

 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

 

Guest:

 

Sadanand Dhume, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, CFR

 

We Discuss:

Why U.S.-India relations have been uncertain since mid-2025 after having slowly strengthened over many years.

How the second Trump administration’s early actions and India’s multipolar diplomacy forced substantive confrontations thatTrump and  Modi’s personal relationship could not overcome.

Why U.S.-India trade negotiations stalled and the Trump administration imposed tariffs, despite India repeatedly offering concessions.

How the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict and Trump’s claim of forcing a ceasefire put Modi in a domestic political bind.

How Pakistan’s prominent role in brokering the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has amplified Indian anxieties about a U.S.-Pakistan thaw.

Why Trump’s talk of a Group of Two with China undermines its strategic desire to strengthen India as a counterweight to Chinese power.

What the state of the Quad—an informal security dialogue among the United States, Australia, India, and Japan—and the United States’ de-emphasis of the Indo-Pacific framework reveal about U.S. strategy in Asia.

How Modi is normalizing ties with China and whether there is a limit to normalization given the Himalayan border dispute and China’s efforts to constrain India’s growth.

How India’s dependence on Russian arms has fallen over time, and why India is increasingly skeptical that Russia can act independently of China.

Why Modi has resisted domestic political pressure to challenge Trump, and what that restraint reveals about India’s calculation of its long-term national interest.

Where the greatest opportunity lies to rebuild the U.S.-India relationship, and why tech cooperation and Silicon Valley represent the most natural and promising place to start.

 

Mentioned in the Episode:

 

“How People in 24 Countries View India,” Pew Research Center

 

Mathew George, Katarina Djokic, Zain Hussain, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Siemon T. Wezeman, “Trends In International Arms Transfers, 2024,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

 

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox

 

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.