In this episode, Mariana speaks with former Supreme Court Minister, Jose Ramon Cosío about the implications of the judicial constitutional reform pushed by President Claudia Sheinbaum and passed by Mexico’s Congress. The reform effectively kills the independence of all local, state, and federal judges as they now must go through elections like any other local, state, or federal politician. Under the new laws, approximately 2,000 judges have been fired and are being replaced by those recently elected out of a pool of approximately 7,700 candidates. Mariana and Jose also discuss the likelihood of the new laws benefiting organized crime organizations, foreign governments, or specific interest groups—or any other group with enough resources to support specific candidates. They speak about how these new laws are also a reversal to the rule of law and how the lack of certainty will hurt Mexico’s attractiveness as an investment destination, both national and international.
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27:02
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27:02
More Carrots and Less Sticks
In this episode, Mariana speaks with Dr. Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at CSIS, about China’s increased presence in Latin America, transforming itself from a distant economic partner into a central player in Latin America’s trade, infrastructure, and key strategic technology sectors.
They also discuss how the new Trump Administration appears to be abandoning a policy of strategic neglect and is turning its attention towards the region. In addition, they discuss how Latin American countries don’t want to pick between the two biggest world economies and how the US can solve this dilemma by offering private-public partnerships in key strategic sectors.
Lastly, they analyze how various Latin countries are following the US in raising tariffs to protect their own industries from Chinese overcapacity, and why Mexico must live up to its commitment and start tracking Chinese investment in the country, particularly in sensitive areas to maintain the trust of the Trump Administration.
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35:55
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35:55
What Mexico Has to Offer
In this episode, Mariana speaks with Alan Bersin, former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of California and US Border Czar under President Obama and Luis Rubio, a leading Mexican political analyst, Chairman of the think tank Mexico Evalua. They discuss the impact of President Trump’s migration policies at the border and on the Mexican side, analyze the potential benefits of designating Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, and discuss the need to increase security cooperation between the two countries. They also speak about the importance for the Mexican government to take a proactive approach in the issues of migration, security, and trade when negotiating with the United States and break down the many challenges that the Sheinbaum Administration is facing—externally and internally—to create the conditions for the country to grow.
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45:05
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45:05
Brazil’s Protectionist Model Should Be No Guide for the US
In this episode, Mariana speaks with Pedro Pullen Parente, a remarkable Brazilian public servant and businessmen. Pedro was previously Minister of Planning, Chief of Staff, Minister of Mines and Energy under President Cardoso. He was also the CEO of Petrobras, ran Bunge Brazil, and was the CEO of BRF, one of the world’s largest food companies
Mariana and Pedro speak about the pros and cons of Brazil’s protectionist economic model. The model might serve as a vision for President Trump as high tariffs, local content requirements, and many other non-market barriers have allowed Brazil to protect its manufacturing sector and jobs while also lowering competitiveness and protecting vested interests.
They also discuss how choosing between the United States and China may not be beneficial to countries like Brazil as well as the likelihood that Brazil might benefit from the current trade war as increased food productivity in the country will allow it to increase supply. However, they emphasize how the only way for Brazil to reach its potential is to focus on removing its own internal barriers to competition and free markets, not the other way around.
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29:10
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29:10
Everything is Relative—including Tariffs
In this episode, Mariana speaks with Luis de la Calle, renowned economist, former NAFTA negotiator and the CEO of CMM Asociados. They discuss the future of globalization, the current perceptions on trade, the potential consequences for North America—and the world—of imposing tariffs, and what can Mexico do to help more Mexican producers comply with USMCA. They also discuss the recent popularity surge of Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, and what she needs to do to put her country (not her party) first.
South Africa