CONFLICTED

Aimen's prediction on 4 August came true, and in the intervening weeks the United States have ramped up the economic pressure on the Iranian regime. The question is: how with the IRGC react? The war re-escalated over the weekend, and as the Iranian people began to make their feelings felt, all indications are that peace is farther away than ever.

Aimen and Thomas discuss:

Operation Economic Outcast: US sanctions and regional trade restrictions tighten Iran’s economic isolation.

Strait of Hormuz: US demining, Gulf oil exports and Iran’s new underwater drone threat reshape the naval war.

Iran’s economic crisis: collapsing rial, inflation, shortages and possible unrest increase pressure on the IRGC.

UAE-Iran trade: Dubai’s historic commercial role shrinks as Gulf states join Washington’s economic campaign.

US strategy in the Gulf: Trump administration cohesion, long-term military deployment and growing concern about China.

Iran escalation risks: attacks on Gulf infrastructure, domestic repression and renewed US-Iran fighting.

Tactical nuclear weapons: Aimen warns the conflict could cross the nuclear threshold if escalation continues.

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
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In this Conflicted Conversation, Simon Sebag Montefiore returns to the show, this time to talk about his new book The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East.

Simon explains:

How Britain and France tried — and often failed — to shape the post-Ottoman Middle East

Why Sykes–Picot is a misleading shorthand for the region’s modern borders

How Atatürk, Nasser and other Middle Eastern leaders remade the region through their own choices

The violent shift from Ottoman pluralism to nationalist, more homogeneous states

Why Nasser’s charisma produced a powerful Arab myth but a disastrous authoritarian model

Why traditional monarchies in Morocco, Jordan and the Gulf often outlasted revolutionary republics

How America became the Middle East’s dominant anti-imperial imperial power after Europe’s retreat

Why militias, parastates and insurgencies make “total victory” in today’s Middle East so elusive

Find Simon on X: x.com/simonmontefiore

Visit Simon’s website: www.simonsebagmontefiore.com

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small .
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Conflicted Conversation, Ian Kumekawa (a fellow of Harvard University and a lecturer at MIT) talks about his book Empty Vessel: The Story of the Global Economy in One Ship.

Ian explains:

The offshore global economy: where loopholes, ships and responsibility slip beyond ordinary jurisdiction

From Little Toot to rusting barges: how industrial capitalism lost its confident postwar world

Sweden’s socialist shipyards, private tax dodges, and the strange birth of the Vessel

Containerisation’s hidden cost: how global trade hollowed out Manhattan’s working waterfront

The Falklands War, Thatcherism, and the private infrastructure behind imperial sovereignty

New York’s floating prison: mass incarceration meets offshore legal ingenuity

Wall Street goes offshore onshore: banks, deregulation and International Banking Facilities

Neoliberalism, legality and injustice: when the modern economy makes the immoral lawful

Visit Ian’s website: www.iankumekawa.com

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews.
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Yemeni researcher and political analyst Baraa Shiban (and dear friend of the show) is back not only to give us an update on Yemen now that the civil war (and Saudi Arabia’s role in it) are heating up again, but also to give Thomas a much-deserved dressing down for not going far enough to hold Jeremy Hunt to account for his role in the Stockholm Agreement.

Baraa explains:

The collapse of the 2022 Yemen truce and renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping

The Yemen battlefield map: Houthi control of Sanaa, Hodeidah and the northwest versus government-held south and east

The strategic importance of Marib and Hadramaut, including Saudi-trained National Shield and Emergency Forces

Mocha, the Giants Brigades and the impact of the UAE withdrawal on anti-Houthi military capabilities

The Stockholm Agreement and how the 2018 ceasefire strengthened long-term Houthi leverage

Why the Houthis are escalating now and how renewed fighting serves Iran’s regional strategy

Houthi links with the IRGC, Hezbollah and Iraqi militias, including operations and financial networks in Iraq

Saudi war aims, the Mecca Accords and the emerging Saudi–Turkey–Pakistan security architecture

Follow Baraa on Instagram: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/baraashiban/⁠

Follow Baraa on X: ⁠https://x.com/BShtwtr⁠

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small .
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Turning their attention away from Iran and toward another Middle Eastern hotspot, Aimen and Thomas explain the course of events in Libya since the Arab Spring. Seismic political events are underway in that sad country, which has been riven by civil war and political division for over fifteen years.

They discuss:

The difference between East and West Libya

First Libyan Civil War: state collapse and militia fragmentation

NATO intervention and Western short-termism

Khalifa Haftar: from Gaddafi officer to eastern strongman

Second Libyan Civil War: Operation Dignity and divided government

Libya proxy war: Egypt, UAE, Russia, Turkey and Qatar

Libyan oil politics: NOC, Central Bank and Haftar’s leverage

U.S.-backed Libya deal: Saddam Haftar, Dbeibah and Pakistan mediation

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced and edited by Thomas Small.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices